In the summer of 2020, the Lapland Tourism Industry Association launched scenario work on the post-Covid-19 scenarios for Lapland tourism. The scenario work analyzed the changes brought about by the corona pandemic from the global operating environment to regional and company-specific effects until 2025. In addition, the effects of the wider trends, consumer behavior and the competitive situation in the sector were identified.

The scenarios serve as a tool for the development of the entire ecosystem of the tourism industry as well as for the development of the individual company’s and the Tourism Area’s own operations. The scenario work was carried out with an ERDF-funded project granted by the Federation of Lapland.

The scenario work sought answers to the following questions:

• How will tourism recover from a corona pandemic?

• What permanent changes will the corona pandemic leave for tourism?

• How will the global and Finnish economies survive the corona pandemic?

• How will businesses survive and thrive through corona pandemic?

• What will be the purchasing power of consumers in 2025?

• How does climate change affect the weather and seasons in Lapland?

• Can tourism operators influence consumer behavior (eg. through the provision of a service)?

Based on the scenario work, four scenarios for tourism in Lapland were formed:

In the multidimensional crisis scenario, the corona pandemic will last for several years. Closure measures and the uncertainty of international trade are escalating into a global recession. In the absence of common travel restrictions and uncertainty, most international tourists stay in holiday destinations in their home countries. The poor economic situation in Lapland and the bankruptcies of small businesses are leading to narrowing the field of tourism.

In the terms of East scenario, China’s effective control mechanism will help the pandemic to cope better than the rest of the world, increasing China’s political and economic power. As Europe is hit by the post-crown economic crisis, China will have the opportunity to increase investment in Europe, including in tourism. Asian tourists will spend more time in Lapland, as more and more trips are combined with other Nordic countries, for which Lapland airports act as intermediate points.

In the European travel community scenario, Europe’s flexible restrictive measures and co-operation will allow life to go on better than the rest of the world. As the climate crisis continues; signs of snow-free winters are also starting to show in Lapland. Tranquility and nature are seen as the luxury of global tourism trends. Unpopularity of the increasingly hot resorts in the south is straining Lapland’s summer tourism and the year-round nature of tourism is increasing. The flexible booking conditions for package tours and the perspective of flight durability weigh on the tourist’s decision-making.

In the international Nordic platform scenario, the corona pandemic will be resolved through international cooperation once the vaccine has entered the market and has a good protective effect. In this scenario the international tourism is recovering and growing. The security of the Finnish Lapland and the strengthening values ​​of tourists, such as the appreciation of nature and peace, make the volume of international tourism in Lapland increase all year round. In addition, international digital giants are strengthening their role in the tourism industry and integrating smaller players into their platforms.

Action plans for each scenario:

Based on the scenarios, the necessary actions that needs to be taken by the tourism operators have been described, regardless of which scenario realizes in the future. In addition, a contingency plan has been created for the realization of each scenario, which gives direction to what the actors should emphasize if the world evolves to a certain scenario.

A summary of the scenarios can be found on the website of the Lapland Tourism Industry Association. The full scenario report can be downloaded here (in Finnish).

Interested in scenarios?
Let’s get in touch

Kimmo Kivinen kuva

Kimmo Kivinen
Senior Partner
+358 50 540 9446
kimmo.kivinen(at)capful.fi

Lapland tourism post-Covid-19 scenarios

In the summer of 2020, the Lapland Tourism Industry Association launched scenario work on the post-Covid-19 scenarios for Lapland tourism. The scenario work analyzed the changes brought about by the corona pandemic from the global operating environment to regional and company-specific effects until 2025. In addition, the effects of the wider trends, consumer behavior and the competitive situation in the sector were identified.

The scenarios serve as a tool for the development of the entire ecosystem of the tourism industry as well as for the development of the individual company’s and the Tourism Area’s own operations. The scenario work was carried out with an ERDF-funded project granted by the Federation of Lapland.

The scenario work sought answers to the following questions:

• How will tourism recover from a corona pandemic?

• What permanent changes will the corona pandemic leave for tourism?

• How will the global and Finnish economies survive the corona pandemic?

• How will businesses survive and thrive through corona pandemic?

• What will be the purchasing power of consumers in 2025?

• How does climate change affect the weather and seasons in Lapland?

• Can tourism operators influence consumer behavior (eg. through the provision of a service)?

Based on the scenario work, four scenarios for tourism in Lapland were formed:

In the multidimensional crisis scenario, the corona pandemic will last for several years. Closure measures and the uncertainty of international trade are escalating into a global recession. In the absence of common travel restrictions and uncertainty, most international tourists stay in holiday destinations in their home countries. The poor economic situation in Lapland and the bankruptcies of small businesses are leading to narrowing the field of tourism.

In the terms of East scenario, China’s effective control mechanism will help the pandemic to cope better than the rest of the world, increasing China’s political and economic power. As Europe is hit by the post-crown economic crisis, China will have the opportunity to increase investment in Europe, including in tourism. Asian tourists will spend more time in Lapland, as more and more trips are combined with other Nordic countries, for which Lapland airports act as intermediate points.

In the European travel community scenario, Europe’s flexible restrictive measures and co-operation will allow life to go on better than the rest of the world. As the climate crisis continues; signs of snow-free winters are also starting to show in Lapland. Tranquility and nature are seen as the luxury of global tourism trends. Unpopularity of the increasingly hot resorts in the south is straining Lapland’s summer tourism and the year-round nature of tourism is increasing. The flexible booking conditions for package tours and the perspective of flight durability weigh on the tourist’s decision-making.

In the international Nordic platform scenario, the corona pandemic will be resolved through international cooperation once the vaccine has entered the market and has a good protective effect. In this scenario the international tourism is recovering and growing. The security of the Finnish Lapland and the strengthening values ​​of tourists, such as the appreciation of nature and peace, make the volume of international tourism in Lapland increase all year round. In addition, international digital giants are strengthening their role in the tourism industry and integrating smaller players into their platforms.

Action plans for each scenario:

Based on the scenarios, the necessary actions that needs to be taken by the tourism operators have been described, regardless of which scenario realizes in the future. In addition, a contingency plan has been created for the realization of each scenario, which gives direction to what the actors should emphasize if the world evolves to a certain scenario.

A summary of the scenarios can be found on the website of the Lapland Tourism Industry Association. The full scenario report can be downloaded here (in Finnish).

Interested in scenarios?
Let’s get in touch

Kimmo Kivinen kuva

Kimmo Kivinen
Senior Partner
+358 50 540 9446
kimmo.kivinen(at)capful.fi

Collaborating with Shell – The digitalisation of society scenarios sketch

Capful and Shell collaborated on a scenario project exploring the impact of Digitalisation on Society.

Capful and Shell collaborated on an ambitious scenario project exploring the impact of Digitalisation on Society. The project set a goal to explore alternative futures moulded by forces of digitalisation. As digitalisation is intertwined in all aspects of life, the project formed around several workstreams including ethics, governance, health, work, economics, education and production.

Top experts took the journey into the future and explored drivers that may dictate how different futures might unfold. Capful and Shell analysed over 40 uncertainty factors. To further analyse the plurality of these uncertainties influencing factors, Capful’s Scenario BuilderTM was used to understand the interconnections between the various factors. This analysis provided a multidimensional view of possible futures.

The method was flexible and based on learning: accumulated learnings from different workstreams were used to complement each other in order to capture the full complexity of the operating environment. The Scenario BuilderTM makes the process both effective and reliable.

Read more about the scenarios from Shell’s website.

How could digital technologies affect the world in the years ahead? Scenario launch at Web Summit:

Interested?
Contact us


Arto Kaunonen
Founder, Senior Partner
+358 50 356 0717
arto.kaunonen(at)capful.fi

Water management scenarios – Kemira

The purpose of the Water management 2040 scenario project was to improve Kemira’s understanding of the future of water and  strengthen its role as an industry thought leader through insightful marketing collateral.

Starting point

To understand the future of water management, Kemira invited an influential panel of experts to discuss about a number of  challenges, opportunities, and possible paths ahead in the form of a scenario project.

Scenario research is an excellent tool for understanding future changes and building knowledge of the industry. Therefore, systematic scenario methodology was chosen as a tool to promote discussion within the water industry.

What was done?

The scenario project was executed in 2021, with the goal to build alternative, yet plausible scenarios for the future of water management looking into 2040.

The Delphi method – involving water management experts from across the globe – was used for identifying trends, potential disruptions and other changes in the operating environment as input for the scenario development. 

The valuable insight gathered from the experts was then used for building the scenarios using Capful’s proprietary Scenario Builder™. As a result, four unique, story-driven water management scenarios were created.

What was achieved? 

Based on the scenario work, a report titled “Water management 2040” was published. The “what if?” stories can inspire strategic discussions, new cooperation and technology development,  and encourage new and innovative ways of thinking within industries.

Kemira uses the scenarios to strengthen its thought leadership position in the industry, build its brand and stimulate discussion with water industry stakeholders. In their marketing, Kemira has utilized the scenarios e.g. in news articles, webinars and panel discussions regarding the future of water management. 
Report: Water management 2040 – Kemira

“Collaboration with Capful was smooth and we’re satisfied with the outcome report, which has been widely used in our customer communications to the water industry. It has also opened new doors for us in terms of cross-industry collaboration with key influencers in the sector.”  

Marikka Nevamäki, Director, Customer communications, Kemira Oyj

Interested in scenarios?
Let’s get in touch


Jari Puhakka
Senior Partner
+358 40 562 2675
jari.puhakka(at)capful.fi

Post-pandemic world in branded consumer goods – Orkla Suomi’s scenarios

The scenario project focused on the disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic to Orkla Suomi’s operating environment. The project outcome consisted of three different scenarios for Orkla Suomi’s alternative future operating environments by 2023, plans for how to prepare for each scenario, and actions that are necessary regardless of which scenario will transpire.

Starting point

Orkla Suomi wanted to understand what changes the coronavirus pandemic would cause in the company’s external operating environment: which elements of the operating environment will revert to the pre-pandemic normal and what will become the “new normal”? With the coronavirus pandemic causing new types of discontinuities in the market, along with rapid changes in consumer behaviour, the aim was to find answers to the following questions: “How can Orkla Suomi take advantage of the change? How well does the current strategy work in the new operating environment?”

The scenario planning approach was chosen because scenarios are an excellent tool for understanding future changes in the operating environment. Rather than addressing future uncertainty as a problem, scenario work helps decisionmakers deal with the uncertain operating environment and the changes in consumer behaviour as an integral part of strategy work, opening up new opportunities.

What was done?

The project consisted of project team meetings and workshops. Data collection was carried out through an efficient scenario survey and expert interviews. In the first phase, the most important uncertainties and critical questions were identified in Orkla Suomi’s operating environment. Critical questions were used to focus on phenomena that should be better understood. The scenarios sought to answer these questions from different perspectives.

In the next phase, a futures table was formed by defining alternative developments until 2023 for selected key uncertainties. With the help of Capful’s proprietary Scenario BuilderTM software, a number of logical but different scenarios were identified. Three scenarios were described in more detail, quantified and visualised. Each scenario also narrated the life and choices of an average consumer.

What was achieved? 

Scenario work facilitated a systematic, yet creative process to find answers to Orkla Suomi’s key strategic questions. Scenarios were utilised to identify new business opportunities and strategic options as well as to test Orkla’s current strategy. The project also defined how Orkla Suomi should prepare for each scenario, described the necessary actions, and created a framework and tool for monitoring the operating environment in the future.

The output of the project also created value added for Orkla Suomi’s customers. Scenarios provide a platform for a deeper dialogue with various stakeholders. The scenario work encouraged a broader and thought-provoking discussion, renewed the strategic vision of key personnel, and enabled a constructive response to the uncertainties and disruptions created by the coronavirus pandemic.

“The scenario project provided additional assurance that our strategy would work as we tested our business model and strategy in these different scenario worlds. It created an opportunity to be optimistic about the difficult situation of spring 2020. The different views coming from outside Orkla Suomi challenged us in an effective manner. The scenarios that we have developed in cooperation with Capful are also a good tool for monitoring how the world is changing.”  

Pasi Flinkman, CEO, Orkla Suomi

Interested in scenarios?
Let’s get in touch


Jari Puhakka
Senior Partner
+358 40 562 2675
jari.puhakka(at)capful.fi

Patria Group’s strategy

Working together with Capful, Patria realised a group strategy project utilising external and internal analyses and the strategic alternatives approach to determine the targets and methods for its growth strategy.

Starting point

Esa Rautalinko took over as Patria Group’s managing director in summer 2019. During the course of the autumn, it became apparent to him that a group strategy project was required. While the strategy processes and strategies for business functions worked efficiently, discussions with key personnel repeatedly highlighted the need for the closer definition of group-level targets and strategy.

In meetings with Capful, Patria’s management discussed how the company’s strategy should be developed and what approach should be adopted in this development. Where is the company headed? What markets should the company operate in and what kind of business portfolio would guarantee growth in those markets? What new resources and competencies were required for growth? It was time to gain a helicopter view of the situation and to find a shared strategic direction for various business functions.

Measures taken

The joint project between Patria and Capful was realised over a period of six months. The work was kicked off with data collection and strategic analyses related to the group strategy. Background information was compiled via questionnaires sent to 88 key members of staff, and 17 virtual and face-to-face meetings with different participants were arranged.

Patria operates in a challenging international environment. To start with, a shared view of the development of the operating environment was formed. In the future, the operating environment analysis will also help the company monitor changes in the markets and review other background information related to the strategy.  The most significant internal analyses were various portfolio and competency analyses, which were performed with a view to seeking synergies between business functions and assessing competencies that created a competitive advantage across the group.

It was decided early on in the process that the mission and strategic targets were the central elements of Patria’s strategy. The special role Patria holds in Finnish society is inevitably reflected in the company’s purpose and operating principles. It was not enough to consider what had to be done and how; when defining its mission, the company had to pay special attention to providing an answer to the question why. Growth is essential to Patria in order to ensure its role as a strong operator in the international defence industry. Therefore, growth was the centre of focus during the process. What would the level of ambition be with regard to growth?

Once the analytical data had been gathered, work to determine Patria’s alternatives related to growth could begin. The dimensions of growth related to markets and internal drivers of growth were identified, and alternatives related to these areas were determined. Creating feasible growth alternatives was important because they offered a basis for strategy discussions on the growth targets. How much growth would each alternative generate? What are the targets? What does the company believe in? Fruitful and organised discussion took place on various forums, with the alternatives assessed systematically from different perspectives. On the basis of these assessments, the main outlines for the group’s growth strategy were defined.

The results achieved

As a result of the project, Patria gained a group-level strategy, which contains the company’s shared strategic goals and selected strategic themes that serve as a tool for achieving the set goals. The strategy emphasised growth built on the comprehensive utilisation of the group’s competencies and new collaboration between business functions. 

“Our strategy work with Capful focused on the big picture. Patria is a technology supplier that strives to grow internationally, and the strategy project demonstrated that we can utilise business functions that support one another and the group’s shared competencies even more efficiently to boost our growth. Capful’s approach was analytical and participatory and it made good use of strategic alternatives. It was easy to build a shared understanding on the basis of the concrete alternatives and far-ranging discussions on the strategy” says the Managing Director Esa Rautalinko, Patria Group

Would you like to realise a group strategy project?
Contact us


Arto Kaunonen
Founder, Senior Partner
+358 50 356 0717
arto.kaunonen(at)capful.fi

Growth strategy for LEDiL

Ledil has considerably increased both net sales and profitability over the last few years. In 2014, Swedish investment company, Ratos, acquired a stake in Ledil and set an ambitious goal for business growth: The turnover of approximately 30 M€ should be multiplied without significantly reducing profitability.

In the strategy project, Ledil’s management and the executive board wanted to chart and prioritize the means of growth in order to reach the goal.

In the beginning, new growth opportunities caused by changing market conditions were identified, product life cycles were analyzed, customers were profiled and the company’s core competencies were described. It was essential to perceive, describe and evaluate different growth options offered by the value chain. Attention was also paid to a few operative issues so that growth could be achieved without possible bottlenecks.

As a result of the project, Ledil’s management and the executive board got a clear picture of the preconditions and opportunities of growth and its initial direction. The most promising growth options were prioritized and the less attractive ones were excluded.

As a result of the project, the company’s new executive board became acquainted with Ledil’s business more profoundly for the first time during its tenure. During the project, participants’ understanding of Ledil’s customers also increased notably.

After the project, Ledil’s management and the executive board possess a clear and shared view on how they should reach the company’s ambitious goal.

– Rami Huovinen, CEO, Ledil

Interested in growth strategies?
Let’s talk


Jari Puhakka
Senior Partner
040 562 2675
jari.puhakka(at)capful.fi

Strategy for the Union of Professional Business Graduates in Finland (TRAL)

Global strategy for Lindström

“The fastest and the most reliable processes in the industry” is one of Lindström’s key goals. The same ambitious approach also describes Lindström Group’s strategy process.

Lindström Group renews its strategy more thoroughly every five years and updates it annually. To work on the strategy 2016-2019, Lindström wanted to have partners who are able to include the viewpoints of the entire company in the process and who have a strong experience in formulating Group strategies with well-established tools for the strategy process. The strategy work had to be thorough in order to reach a simple, understandable and well-grounded outcome. Another important goal of the process was to produce clear actions and priorities for successful strategy implementation.

”Lindström operates in 24 countries. In every country, the service portfolio is different due to the distinct development stage of the market. This also added its own complexity to the process.”

In cooperation with Fountain Park, Capful tailored a strategy process for Lindström, in which all relevant aspects were taken into account while making the necessary choices. Firstly, the changes in the operating environment, as well as, the organizational development needs were identified by using the virtual brainstorm method of Fountain Park. Secondly, the changes in the operating environment were analyzed and processed with Capful in project meetings and market-specific workshops arranged by Capful. Based on the analysis of the business environment, Lindström’s internal development targets and the vision 2020 adopted by the Board of Directors, the strategic themes of Lindström were selected and crystallized in the management team’s workshops.

The core of the new strategy is a clear set of measures that are now being developed further. There is a high level of motivation and enthusiasm to implement the new strategy.

– Juha Laurio, CEO, Lindström

Interested?
Let’s talk


Jari Puhakka
Senior Partner
040 562 2675
jari.puhakka(at)capful.fi

Future of Digitization, Options and Choices – Elo Mutual Pension Insurance Company

The advancement of the fourth industrial revolution increases the uncertainty of the future and also has a strong impact on the field of occupational pension insurances. The importance of data analytics and automation increases in improving efficiency and customer relationship management. Customers ask for personalized and flexible services that are available at different times and in different ways. Fintechs and international companies are striving to challenge financial corporations that operate as important distribution channels for occupational pension funds. In addition, blockchain technologies create new operating models for the industry. Many traditional companies are afraid of losing direct contact with customers when tech companies enter the customer interface. Which ecosystems will win and on what platforms will future services be built? In addition, robotization, servitization, service platforms and self-employment change the nature of employment relationships. How, where and by what means will the TyEL (Employment insurance for employees) and the YEL (Insurance for Self-Employed Persons) payments be paid in the future? Among other things, these issues were analyzed in a scenario-based strategy work focusing on how the employment pension company Elo can utilize the changes enabled by digitization.

Starting point

  • Digitization and technology developments have a strong impact on the earnings-related pension sector and on the financial companies operating as key distribution channels for pension insurance companies.
  • Digitization involves a great deal of uncertainty and disruptive discontinuities, which are difficult to analyze through future predictions.
  • Views on the pace of progression and the impact of digitization development vary. However, there are no right or wrong answers, hence, finding a way to deal with alternative futures and their impacts has to be foun

What was done?

  • Scenarios focusing on digitization in the occupational sector were established: five different scenarios in which the pace, intensity, content and impacts of digitization development on Elo Mutual Pension Insurance Company vary.
  • Contingency plans for five different scenarios were prepared. In addition, a list of the necessary measures to be taken as a basis for strategy work (which should be implemented regardless of the scenario in which the sector is starting to develop) was identified.
  • Elo’s own strategic options regarding the ambition, operational models, organization and priorities of digitization were described. Strategic intentions, policies and key actions were then defined based on systematic evaluation of the different strategic options.

What was achieved?

  • The scenario-based strategy work encouraged an exchange of ideas in various discussions and enabled constructive processing of the uncertainties and disruptions produced by digitization within the company.
  • The project established the basis for the strategic direction of utilizing Elo’s digitization until 2020. The key conclusions and guidelines were crystallized into five strategic themes.
  • Based on the project, it was possible to define underlying assumptions for the development of Elo’s operating environment. By monitoring the validity of these assumptions, Elo is now able to strengthen its responsiveness to industry changes.


Interested in scenarios?
Let’s talk!



Arto Kaunonen
Founder, Senior Partner
+358 50 356 0717
arto.kaunonen(at)capful.fi

Regional Council of Kymenlaakso

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Kimmo Kivinen
Senior Partner
050 540 9446
kimmo.kivinen(at)capful.fi
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