How do we ensure a just, prosperous, and resilient Nigeria when it turns 100 in 2060? This question underpinned the Which Way Nigeria – Citizen Scenarios to 2060 (CS60) initiative. The ambitious project aimed at creating scenarios for the country up to 2060 and offering a roadmap towards achieving Nigeria’s desired path to the future. The scenarios are intended to inspire a serious national conversation on where Nigeria is heading and what policies are required to create the future Nigeria that Nigerians want.

With Nigerian civil society organizations taking the lead, CS60 brought together leading local and international experts, whilst Capful brought its scenario expertise to the table. We facilitated the participatory process and used our advanced scenario methods to ensure logical, plausible, and thought-provoking scenarios. Building on a rigorous analysis of the critical uncertainties, we used our proprietary Scenario Builder™ software to make sense of the highly complex environment. The tool generates an intriguing, interactive map of the entire scenario space and helps capture the most relevant and plausible scenarios.

The Nigerian-owned and run project created four scenarios that stem from the existential questions that Nigeria and its citizens wanted to ask regarding their country’s future. Each scenario has a detailed timeline covering all key sectors including energy transition, security, urbanization, migration, education, health, and citizen engagement. The scenarios were unveiled on 11 January 2023 in a news conference in Lagos.

video credit: CS60

The project was both exceptional and highly rewarding for Capful in that all participants were prepared to take such an honest look at where Nigeria stands today and where it wants to be by 2060. The four scenarios cover the full spectrum of the country’s future opportunities and challenges, which are fittingly captured in the scenario names: 1) Land of Hustle, 2) Green land, 3) Land of Lost Hope, and 4) Blood land.

Please follow this link to download full scenario descriptions and storylines.

“With its abundant resources and its population likely to hit 400 million by 2050, Nigeria holds immense future potential. Helping facilitate the scenario process that engages Nigeria’s civil society has been both demanding and meaningful.”

– Arto Kaunonen, Capful’s Founder and Senior Partner

Scenarios are holistic descriptions of possible and alternative future environments. Scenario work is not about predicting one most likely future. The scenarios described may seem more or less likely to different people. However, the aim is not to select one scenario by ranking them in order of probability, but to look at the scenarios as a whole. Future events are often a combination of different scenarios. Scenarios are not an attempt to claim what is certain to happen in the external environment, but rather to strengthen the ability to understand current phenomena and their alternative development paths, and to improve the ability to react and change.

Interested?

Contact us


Arto Kaunonen
Founding Partner
050 356 0717        
arto.kaunonen(at)capful.fi

‘Which Way Nigeria – Citizen Scenarios to 2060’ launched – the first of its kind in Africa and the second in the world 

How do we ensure a just, prosperous, and resilient Nigeria when it turns 100 in 2060? This question underpinned the Which Way Nigeria – Citizen Scenarios to 2060 (CS60) initiative. The ambitious project aimed at creating scenarios for the country up to 2060 and offering a roadmap towards achieving Nigeria’s desired path to the future. The scenarios are intended to inspire a serious national conversation on where Nigeria is heading and what policies are required to create the future Nigeria that Nigerians want.

With Nigerian civil society organizations taking the lead, CS60 brought together leading local and international experts, whilst Capful brought its scenario expertise to the table. We facilitated the participatory process and used our advanced scenario methods to ensure logical, plausible, and thought-provoking scenarios. Building on a rigorous analysis of the critical uncertainties, we used our proprietary Scenario Builder™ software to make sense of the highly complex environment. The tool generates an intriguing, interactive map of the entire scenario space and helps capture the most relevant and plausible scenarios.

The Nigerian-owned and run project created four scenarios that stem from the existential questions that Nigeria and its citizens wanted to ask regarding their country’s future. Each scenario has a detailed timeline covering all key sectors including energy transition, security, urbanization, migration, education, health, and citizen engagement. The scenarios were unveiled on 11 January 2023 in a news conference in Lagos.

video credit: CS60

The project was both exceptional and highly rewarding for Capful in that all participants were prepared to take such an honest look at where Nigeria stands today and where it wants to be by 2060. The four scenarios cover the full spectrum of the country’s future opportunities and challenges, which are fittingly captured in the scenario names: 1) Land of Hustle, 2) Green land, 3) Land of Lost Hope, and 4) Blood land.

Please follow this link to download full scenario descriptions and storylines.

“With its abundant resources and its population likely to hit 400 million by 2050, Nigeria holds immense future potential. Helping facilitate the scenario process that engages Nigeria’s civil society has been both demanding and meaningful.”

– Arto Kaunonen, Capful’s Founder and Senior Partner

Scenarios are holistic descriptions of possible and alternative future environments. Scenario work is not about predicting one most likely future. The scenarios described may seem more or less likely to different people. However, the aim is not to select one scenario by ranking them in order of probability, but to look at the scenarios as a whole. Future events are often a combination of different scenarios. Scenarios are not an attempt to claim what is certain to happen in the external environment, but rather to strengthen the ability to understand current phenomena and their alternative development paths, and to improve the ability to react and change.

Interested?

Contact us


Arto Kaunonen
Founding Partner
050 356 0717        
arto.kaunonen(at)capful.fi

Tornator scenarios – what will happen to forests?

Tornator Plc is a leading European company specialized in sustainable forest management. During the 21st century, Tornator has grown to become the largest private forest owner in Finland and Estonia, as well as a significant forest manager in Romania. Sustainable forestry, forestland purchasing and lease, and silvicultural services form the company’s core business, but Tornator also develops wind power projects and is active in land and soil trading. The business is based on sustainable use of forests as well as a strong environmental expertise and utilization of digital technologies. In 2021, Tornator’s forest assets were valued at around EUR 2.2 billion.

Forestry is undergoing profound changes  

In 2021, the European Commission proposed a large number of new forest regulations. There was even talk of a regulatory landslide. The Commission published its much-anticipated Forest Strategy and promoted several regulations and directives related to the environment, climate, and energy policies. These regulations and directives will also directly or indirectly affect the forest sector by highlighting the role of forests in achieving climate and biodiversity objectives.

To better understand the changes in the operating environment and their impact on Tornator’s business, as well as to strengthen the company’s internal strategic thinking and to define strategic options for the future, Tornator started a scenario study with Capful. The goal of the study was to examine the development of the Finnish forestry sector until 2030.

After the project had already started, the uncertainty in the operating environment increased significantly: Russia invaded Ukraine, and the outlook for the economy that was still recovering from the shock caused by the pandemic became misty again. In addition, the invasion directly shook the Finnish timber market, as timber imports from Russia stopped.

Scenario work contributes to foresight and decision-making – what will happen to forests?

Some of the key questions in the scenario work were: 1) how are forests used in the future and by whom, 2) how will regulation evolve in the future, 3) what is the role of forests in protecting biodiversity, 4) what is the role of forestry in combating climate change, and how will this affect the use of forest assets, and 5) what new forest-related businesses and business models could emerge  by 2030?

Perspectives for the scenarios were sought through an internal survey and interviews with Finnish and international experts on issues such as the green transition, economic and technological development, the EU taxonomy for sustainable activities, and emergency supply in addition to questions directly related to forestry. The impact of the war in Ukraine on the scenarios was also assessed separately by Capful experts.

Capful’s proprietary Scenario Builder™ was used in the project to build logical, plausible, and differentiated scenarios.

Three alternative futures of forestry

The alternative futures of forestry were summarized in three scenarios: 1) Market-driven green transition, 2) Strict EU regulation and energy self-sufficiency, and 3) Forest management secures emergency supply.

The scenarios shed light on the alternative developments that could lead to, for example, a total ban of clear-cutting, a stronger role of the member states in biodiversity questions, a shift towards a higher value-added production in the Finnish forest industry, a ban on plastic use, an increased use of wood fiber in the clothing industry, and a stronger growth of wind power generation. The scenarios also include topics such as energy self-sufficiency, hydrogen economy, the worsening shortages of raw materials, extreme natural events, emissions trading systems, and their implications for Tornator’s alternative operating environments in 2030. Geopolitics had a strong effect on the development of the operating environment in the Forest management secures emergency supply scenario. The scenarios were also quantified in terms of business variables identified as the most significant to Tornator.

Eventually, the implications of the alternative futures to Tornator’s business were examined by analyzing the strategic fit of the company’s current strategy against the scenarios, the scenario independent actions, the scenario specific strategic options and lastly, the contingency plans. In addition, the scenario work and the identified trends and uncertainties provide a solid basis for strategic and future-oriented monitoring of the operating environment.

“Our goal was to enhance our competency in scenario work and thanks to Capful, we succeeded in this. The work took on a whole new dimension when the war in Ukraine broke out in the middle of the project, and the importance of scenario thinking became more concrete for the participants. Capful ran the workshops in an excellent manner and got people talking at an appropriately strategic level.”

– Henrik Nieminen, CEO, Tornator Oyj

Lapland tourism post-Covid-19 scenarios

In the summer of 2020, the Lapland Tourism Industry Association launched scenario work on the post-Covid-19 scenarios for Lapland tourism. The scenario work analyzed the changes brought about by the corona pandemic from the global operating environment to regional and company-specific effects until 2025. In addition, the effects of the wider trends, consumer behavior and the competitive situation in the sector were identified.

The scenarios serve as a tool for the development of the entire ecosystem of the tourism industry as well as for the development of the individual company’s and the Tourism Area’s own operations. The scenario work was carried out with an ERDF-funded project granted by the Federation of Lapland.

The scenario work sought answers to the following questions:

• How will tourism recover from a corona pandemic?

• What permanent changes will the corona pandemic leave for tourism?

• How will the global and Finnish economies survive the corona pandemic?

• How will businesses survive and thrive through corona pandemic?

• What will be the purchasing power of consumers in 2025?

• How does climate change affect the weather and seasons in Lapland?

• Can tourism operators influence consumer behavior (eg. through the provision of a service)?

Based on the scenario work, four scenarios for tourism in Lapland were formed:

In the multidimensional crisis scenario, the corona pandemic will last for several years. Closure measures and the uncertainty of international trade are escalating into a global recession. In the absence of common travel restrictions and uncertainty, most international tourists stay in holiday destinations in their home countries. The poor economic situation in Lapland and the bankruptcies of small businesses are leading to narrowing the field of tourism.

In the terms of East scenario, China’s effective control mechanism will help the pandemic to cope better than the rest of the world, increasing China’s political and economic power. As Europe is hit by the post-crown economic crisis, China will have the opportunity to increase investment in Europe, including in tourism. Asian tourists will spend more time in Lapland, as more and more trips are combined with other Nordic countries, for which Lapland airports act as intermediate points.

In the European travel community scenario, Europe’s flexible restrictive measures and co-operation will allow life to go on better than the rest of the world. As the climate crisis continues; signs of snow-free winters are also starting to show in Lapland. Tranquility and nature are seen as the luxury of global tourism trends. Unpopularity of the increasingly hot resorts in the south is straining Lapland’s summer tourism and the year-round nature of tourism is increasing. The flexible booking conditions for package tours and the perspective of flight durability weigh on the tourist’s decision-making.

In the international Nordic platform scenario, the corona pandemic will be resolved through international cooperation once the vaccine has entered the market and has a good protective effect. In this scenario the international tourism is recovering and growing. The security of the Finnish Lapland and the strengthening values ​​of tourists, such as the appreciation of nature and peace, make the volume of international tourism in Lapland increase all year round. In addition, international digital giants are strengthening their role in the tourism industry and integrating smaller players into their platforms.

Action plans for each scenario:

Based on the scenarios, the necessary actions that needs to be taken by the tourism operators have been described, regardless of which scenario realizes in the future. In addition, a contingency plan has been created for the realization of each scenario, which gives direction to what the actors should emphasize if the world evolves to a certain scenario.

A summary of the scenarios can be found on the website of the Lapland Tourism Industry Association. The full scenario report can be downloaded here (in Finnish).

Interested in scenarios?
Let’s get in touch

Kimmo Kivinen kuva

Kimmo Kivinen
Senior Partner
+358 50 540 9446
kimmo.kivinen(at)capful.fi

Collaborating with Shell – The digitalisation of society scenarios sketch

Capful and Shell collaborated on a scenario project exploring the impact of Digitalisation on Society.

Capful and Shell collaborated on an ambitious scenario project exploring the impact of Digitalisation on Society. The project set a goal to explore alternative futures moulded by forces of digitalisation. As digitalisation is intertwined in all aspects of life, the project formed around several workstreams including ethics, governance, health, work, economics, education and production.

Top experts took the journey into the future and explored drivers that may dictate how different futures might unfold. Capful and Shell analysed over 40 uncertainty factors. To further analyse the plurality of these uncertainties influencing factors, Capful’s Scenario BuilderTM was used to understand the interconnections between the various factors. This analysis provided a multidimensional view of possible futures.

The method was flexible and based on learning: accumulated learnings from different workstreams were used to complement each other in order to capture the full complexity of the operating environment. The Scenario BuilderTM makes the process both effective and reliable.

Read more about the scenarios from Shell’s website.

How could digital technologies affect the world in the years ahead? Scenario launch at Web Summit:

Interested?
Contact us


Arto Kaunonen
Founder, Senior Partner
+358 50 356 0717
arto.kaunonen(at)capful.fi

Water management scenarios – Kemira

The purpose of the Water management 2040 scenario project was to improve Kemira’s understanding of the future of water and  strengthen its role as an industry thought leader through insightful marketing collateral.

Starting point

To understand the future of water management, Kemira invited an influential panel of experts to discuss about a number of  challenges, opportunities, and possible paths ahead in the form of a scenario project.

Scenario research is an excellent tool for understanding future changes and building knowledge of the industry. Therefore, systematic scenario methodology was chosen as a tool to promote discussion within the water industry.

What was done?

The scenario project was executed in 2021, with the goal to build alternative, yet plausible scenarios for the future of water management looking into 2040.

The Delphi method – involving water management experts from across the globe – was used for identifying trends, potential disruptions and other changes in the operating environment as input for the scenario development. 

The valuable insight gathered from the experts was then used for building the scenarios using Capful’s proprietary Scenario Builder™. As a result, four unique, story-driven water management scenarios were created.

What was achieved? 

Based on the scenario work, a report titled “Water management 2040” was published. The “what if?” stories can inspire strategic discussions, new cooperation and technology development,  and encourage new and innovative ways of thinking within industries.

Kemira uses the scenarios to strengthen its thought leadership position in the industry, build its brand and stimulate discussion with water industry stakeholders. In their marketing, Kemira has utilized the scenarios e.g. in news articles, webinars and panel discussions regarding the future of water management. 
Report: Water management 2040 – Kemira

“Collaboration with Capful was smooth and we’re satisfied with the outcome report, which has been widely used in our customer communications to the water industry. It has also opened new doors for us in terms of cross-industry collaboration with key influencers in the sector.”  

Marikka Nevamäki, Director, Customer communications, Kemira Oyj

Interested in scenarios?
Let’s get in touch


Jari Puhakka
Senior Partner
+358 40 562 2675
jari.puhakka(at)capful.fi

Post-pandemic world in branded consumer goods – Orkla Suomi’s scenarios

The scenario project focused on the disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic to Orkla Suomi’s operating environment. The project outcome consisted of three different scenarios for Orkla Suomi’s alternative future operating environments by 2023, plans for how to prepare for each scenario, and actions that are necessary regardless of which scenario will transpire.

Starting point

Orkla Suomi wanted to understand what changes the coronavirus pandemic would cause in the company’s external operating environment: which elements of the operating environment will revert to the pre-pandemic normal and what will become the “new normal”? With the coronavirus pandemic causing new types of discontinuities in the market, along with rapid changes in consumer behaviour, the aim was to find answers to the following questions: “How can Orkla Suomi take advantage of the change? How well does the current strategy work in the new operating environment?”

The scenario planning approach was chosen because scenarios are an excellent tool for understanding future changes in the operating environment. Rather than addressing future uncertainty as a problem, scenario work helps decisionmakers deal with the uncertain operating environment and the changes in consumer behaviour as an integral part of strategy work, opening up new opportunities.

What was done?

The project consisted of project team meetings and workshops. Data collection was carried out through an efficient scenario survey and expert interviews. In the first phase, the most important uncertainties and critical questions were identified in Orkla Suomi’s operating environment. Critical questions were used to focus on phenomena that should be better understood. The scenarios sought to answer these questions from different perspectives.

In the next phase, a futures table was formed by defining alternative developments until 2023 for selected key uncertainties. With the help of Capful’s proprietary Scenario BuilderTM software, a number of logical but different scenarios were identified. Three scenarios were described in more detail, quantified and visualised. Each scenario also narrated the life and choices of an average consumer.

What was achieved? 

Scenario work facilitated a systematic, yet creative process to find answers to Orkla Suomi’s key strategic questions. Scenarios were utilised to identify new business opportunities and strategic options as well as to test Orkla’s current strategy. The project also defined how Orkla Suomi should prepare for each scenario, described the necessary actions, and created a framework and tool for monitoring the operating environment in the future.

The output of the project also created value added for Orkla Suomi’s customers. Scenarios provide a platform for a deeper dialogue with various stakeholders. The scenario work encouraged a broader and thought-provoking discussion, renewed the strategic vision of key personnel, and enabled a constructive response to the uncertainties and disruptions created by the coronavirus pandemic.

“The scenario project provided additional assurance that our strategy would work as we tested our business model and strategy in these different scenario worlds. It created an opportunity to be optimistic about the difficult situation of spring 2020. The different views coming from outside Orkla Suomi challenged us in an effective manner. The scenarios that we have developed in cooperation with Capful are also a good tool for monitoring how the world is changing.”  

Pasi Flinkman, CEO, Orkla Suomi

Interested in scenarios?
Let’s get in touch


Jari Puhakka
Senior Partner
+358 40 562 2675
jari.puhakka(at)capful.fi

Patria Group’s strategy

Working together with Capful, Patria realised a group strategy project utilising external and internal analyses and the strategic alternatives approach to determine the targets and methods for its growth strategy.

Starting point

Esa Rautalinko took over as Patria Group’s managing director in summer 2019. During the course of the autumn, it became apparent to him that a group strategy project was required. While the strategy processes and strategies for business functions worked efficiently, discussions with key personnel repeatedly highlighted the need for the closer definition of group-level targets and strategy.

In meetings with Capful, Patria’s management discussed how the company’s strategy should be developed and what approach should be adopted in this development. Where is the company headed? What markets should the company operate in and what kind of business portfolio would guarantee growth in those markets? What new resources and competencies were required for growth? It was time to gain a helicopter view of the situation and to find a shared strategic direction for various business functions.

Measures taken

The joint project between Patria and Capful was realised over a period of six months. The work was kicked off with data collection and strategic analyses related to the group strategy. Background information was compiled via questionnaires sent to 88 key members of staff, and 17 virtual and face-to-face meetings with different participants were arranged.

Patria operates in a challenging international environment. To start with, a shared view of the development of the operating environment was formed. In the future, the operating environment analysis will also help the company monitor changes in the markets and review other background information related to the strategy.  The most significant internal analyses were various portfolio and competency analyses, which were performed with a view to seeking synergies between business functions and assessing competencies that created a competitive advantage across the group.

It was decided early on in the process that the mission and strategic targets were the central elements of Patria’s strategy. The special role Patria holds in Finnish society is inevitably reflected in the company’s purpose and operating principles. It was not enough to consider what had to be done and how; when defining its mission, the company had to pay special attention to providing an answer to the question why. Growth is essential to Patria in order to ensure its role as a strong operator in the international defence industry. Therefore, growth was the centre of focus during the process. What would the level of ambition be with regard to growth?

Once the analytical data had been gathered, work to determine Patria’s alternatives related to growth could begin. The dimensions of growth related to markets and internal drivers of growth were identified, and alternatives related to these areas were determined. Creating feasible growth alternatives was important because they offered a basis for strategy discussions on the growth targets. How much growth would each alternative generate? What are the targets? What does the company believe in? Fruitful and organised discussion took place on various forums, with the alternatives assessed systematically from different perspectives. On the basis of these assessments, the main outlines for the group’s growth strategy were defined.

The results achieved

As a result of the project, Patria gained a group-level strategy, which contains the company’s shared strategic goals and selected strategic themes that serve as a tool for achieving the set goals. The strategy emphasised growth built on the comprehensive utilisation of the group’s competencies and new collaboration between business functions. 

“Our strategy work with Capful focused on the big picture. Patria is a technology supplier that strives to grow internationally, and the strategy project demonstrated that we can utilise business functions that support one another and the group’s shared competencies even more efficiently to boost our growth. Capful’s approach was analytical and participatory and it made good use of strategic alternatives. It was easy to build a shared understanding on the basis of the concrete alternatives and far-ranging discussions on the strategy” says the Managing Director Esa Rautalinko, Patria Group

Would you like to realise a group strategy project?
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Arto Kaunonen
Founder, Senior Partner
+358 50 356 0717
arto.kaunonen(at)capful.fi

Growth strategy for LEDiL

Ledil has considerably increased both net sales and profitability over the last few years. In 2014, Swedish investment company, Ratos, acquired a stake in Ledil and set an ambitious goal for business growth: The turnover of approximately 30 M€ should be multiplied without significantly reducing profitability.

In the strategy project, Ledil’s management and the executive board wanted to chart and prioritize the means of growth in order to reach the goal.

In the beginning, new growth opportunities caused by changing market conditions were identified, product life cycles were analyzed, customers were profiled and the company’s core competencies were described. It was essential to perceive, describe and evaluate different growth options offered by the value chain. Attention was also paid to a few operative issues so that growth could be achieved without possible bottlenecks.

As a result of the project, Ledil’s management and the executive board got a clear picture of the preconditions and opportunities of growth and its initial direction. The most promising growth options were prioritized and the less attractive ones were excluded.

As a result of the project, the company’s new executive board became acquainted with Ledil’s business more profoundly for the first time during its tenure. During the project, participants’ understanding of Ledil’s customers also increased notably.

After the project, Ledil’s management and the executive board possess a clear and shared view on how they should reach the company’s ambitious goal.

– Rami Huovinen, CEO, Ledil

Interested in growth strategies?
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Jari Puhakka
Senior Partner
040 562 2675
jari.puhakka(at)capful.fi

Strategy for the Union of Professional Business Graduates in Finland (TRAL)

Global strategy for Lindström

“The fastest and the most reliable processes in the industry” is one of Lindström’s key goals. The same ambitious approach also describes Lindström Group’s strategy process.

Lindström Group renews its strategy more thoroughly every five years and updates it annually. To work on the strategy 2016-2019, Lindström wanted to have partners who are able to include the viewpoints of the entire company in the process and who have a strong experience in formulating Group strategies with well-established tools for the strategy process. The strategy work had to be thorough in order to reach a simple, understandable and well-grounded outcome. Another important goal of the process was to produce clear actions and priorities for successful strategy implementation.

”Lindström operates in 24 countries. In every country, the service portfolio is different due to the distinct development stage of the market. This also added its own complexity to the process.”

In cooperation with Fountain Park, Capful tailored a strategy process for Lindström, in which all relevant aspects were taken into account while making the necessary choices. Firstly, the changes in the operating environment, as well as, the organizational development needs were identified by using the virtual brainstorm method of Fountain Park. Secondly, the changes in the operating environment were analyzed and processed with Capful in project meetings and market-specific workshops arranged by Capful. Based on the analysis of the business environment, Lindström’s internal development targets and the vision 2020 adopted by the Board of Directors, the strategic themes of Lindström were selected and crystallized in the management team’s workshops.

The core of the new strategy is a clear set of measures that are now being developed further. There is a high level of motivation and enthusiasm to implement the new strategy.

– Juha Laurio, CEO, Lindström

Interested?
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Jari Puhakka
Senior Partner
040 562 2675
jari.puhakka(at)capful.fi
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