Experience and expertise from over 150 scenario projects underpin Capful’s proprietary Scenario Builder™. We use our algorithm-based tool in scenario work to build logical, plausible and differentiated scenarios and to bring out novel viewpoints to inspire futures thinking. Scenario Builder produces an interactive scenario map that visualises the scenario space and speeds up comparison of alternative scenarios.  

Scenario Builder in scenario work 

The future is open, but not empty. We all have different presumptions, perceptions and expectations regarding the future. Both analytical and creative thinking and methods are needed to be able to make sense of the numerous, intertwined forces driving change in the external environment. Scenarios enable such sensemaking. In scenario work, the drivers of change and their alternative developments in the multifaceted operating environment form an information space that Scenario Builder helps organise and analyse. With the user-friendly tool, it is possible to easily alter or adjust the different change drivers and their development paths and instantly see the impact of these adjustments. Various assumptions can be tested in real time.  

Scenario Builder relies on consistency analysis – to assess the interdependencies and logical consistencies between alternative scenarios – as well as mathematical algorithms that together produce a set of initial scenarios illustrated in an interactive map. The tool helps compare the differences and similarities between the alternative scenarios and select persuasive, logical and thought-provoking alternatives for further examination.  

How does Scenario Builder work?  

  1. Draws on consistency analysis to evaluate interdependencies between key uncertainties and their alternative developments in the external environment

  2. Produces all plausible scenarios based on the alternative developments and their combinations 

  3. Analyses differences and similarities between the scenarios

  4. Organises the scenarios in clusters emphasising their differences and similarities, whilst also highlighting unconventional, thought-provoking scenarios

  5. Provides an effective illustration of alternative scenarios by visualising them on an informative, interactive scenario map

Contact us to learn more about how we use Scenario Builder in scenario and strategy work.Contact us to learn more about how we use Scenario Builder in scenario and strategy work.

BENEFITS PROVIDED BY SCENARIO BUILDER

The user-friendly, interactive tool helps examine possible developments in a multifaceted external environment and identify alternative futures shaped by these developments 

Produces a comprehensive map of the scenario space made up of alternative scenarios, making it easy to navigate the space and select differentiated scenarios for further analysis

The informative map draws attention not only to the scenario clusters, but also outlier scenarios between the clusters, introducing new – even unexpected – perspectives that promote futures thinking

Helps make sense of the structure and logic of different scenarios, speeds up comparison of alternative scenarios, and makes it virtually impossible to ignore noteworthy scenarios

Enables real-time testing of alterations and adjustments in the different drivers of change and their developments in the external environment  

The systematic and transparent analysis helps build logical, relevant and differentiated scenarios, improving the quality of strategy work based on the scenarios

Reference case
Collaborating with Shell – The digitalisation of society scenarios sketch
Reference case
The Energy Future Project – Finnish Energy
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