Category: Yleinen

Hey! Pietari Pikkuaho here, Head of AI at Capful. I have been working at Capful for two and a half years, of which the past two years has been on building our GenAI practice from zero. I wanted to share some reflections on working in the fastest-moving field I have ever experienced, and highlight a few things that have stayed relatively constant despite the pace of progress. 

The weird thing about working with AI is that even if you believe in the rapid development of AI, you might still end up being surprised when that pace materializes, because you have failed to internalize the belief. While a lot of our strategy in the AI space has been founded on the belief that GenAI will continue to scale and that we will see rapid development in the coming years, it is one thing to say you believe that. It is another to wake up every six months to a paradigm-setting breakthrough, that requires you to change direction or pivot, because the problems you have been solving have been either solved or invalidated by the technology. 

It is also what makes this by far the most dynamic job I have ever had: the field keeps changing, and so must your strategy, roadmap, and playbook. 

Still, there are a few things that have not (yet) been invalidated about working with GenAI. One is the importance of benchmarks, evaluation, and validation. You need to be able to concretely measure the performance of a new model or tool at a task and benchmark it against what you had before. Moving to a new model is rarely a simple drop-in operation. Different models still have their own quirks and often require extensive validation to make sure they do not break your existing tools. 

Another is that codifying institutional knowledge is real, and your AI solution is fundamentally bounded by your own capabilities. If your team can deliver foresight at a level of 7 out of 10, your AI tools will not magically reach an 8 – because you do not know what an 8 looks like, and neither will your AI tool. This is also why traditional subject matter experts are not just helpful in building AI solutions, they are essential. The best AI tools emerge from marrying domain experts who understand the craft with technologists who understand the technology, and involving both in designing the solution. 

For us, the past year and a half has been a labour of building toward what we see as the future of foresight, and strategy consulting at large. We launched CapfulAI, our internal GenAI-driven foresight platform, in the spring of 2025. Alongside this, we completed a 9-month Business Finland-funded research project exploring agentic reasoning, and are now participating in a new research initiative led by researchers from Aalto University and Oxford examining how AI is reshaping consulting. Looking back, I am incredibly happy that we started as early as we did, because we have needed this time to construct a solid foundation and lay the groundwork for what comes next. This also allows us to move from the foundational phase to the transformation phase, where we can truly start to see what the next era of consulting might look like. 

We see the future moving in two directions: a platform-based future where consulting companies codify their knowledge into digital platforms, and an AI-driven hybrid future where small, nimble teams leverage AI to punch above their weight and solve complex problems. 

Our aim is to work in both. Through CapfulAI, by codifying over 25 years of institutional knowledge into a platform-based offering, and by leveraging the tools we build to deliver best-in-class consulting and solve the most complex problems in strategic foresight. 

After a period of quiet building, we are ready for what comes next. The next six months will be some of the most critical – and exciting – in Capful’s history, and we cannot wait to share what we have learned on our way here. 

Pietari Pikkuaho
Head of AI, Senior Advisor
+358 40 124 1471
pietari.pikkuaho@capful.fi

This cannot happen! This war is insane! What on earth are they trying to achieve? Outcries like these have been common since end of February. But unfortunately, Russia’s war against Ukraine is a fact. Another fact is that all the signs were there, including US intelligence predictions of the date when the invasion would start. But we could not interpret things correctly, mostly because the scenario of a war in Europe was so awkward. A tragedy is now unfolding before our eyes. But as decision makers, responsible for our organizations, we must make sense of the situation, cope with plausible tomorrows, and make decisions today.

SEEING PAST THE BIASES IS CRUCIAL IN SENSEMAKING

In real-time we see what is happening. Media, both traditional and social, report of different aspects. One challenge we have is that there are probably very few “objective” reports, all are looking at the situation through lenses, some intentionally stressing some aspects, some conveying wishful thinking, some pure propaganda etc. To understand why who is saying what is not an easy task.  And at the same time our perceptions and interpretations are very tweaked by our personal set of values.

DO YOU HAVE THE TOOLS TO MAKE SENSE OF THE SITUATION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS?

The war in Ukraine was not more than days old when the first companies announced that they will withdraw from Russia. This was not based only on the sanctions imposed, but also on other considerations, including moral and ethical. Other decision might be less dramatic, but the situation is new, the playing field has tilted. Few organizations have scenarios and contingency plans for the situation with a war in Europe. These would be helpful to have, when making decisions in a new, and partly unknown situation. It is of utmost importance to start working on such plans now. Doing so, one must consider several plausible ways the war might unfold. Fortunately, there are tools and practices to support the planning process.

Lot of thinking power and energy is devoted to the immediate and acute challenges. The magnitude of the refugee tragedy is enormous. The anticipated recovery from the pandemic will be postponed.  The global financial system faces challenges etc.  At the same time, we already see that the war Russia has started has impacted other processes. Besides EU revamping unity and acceleration of discussions of NATO membership in Finland and Sweden, e.g. energy transition is not only a climate issue anymore, but also a security issue. And global sourcing and logistics are looked at in new ways. Recycling of especially rare earth metals will be looked at more intensively. A lot of issues emerge. Each organization face uncertainties that have not been on the radar screen before the war. It is beneficial to take a fresh look at the set of uncertainties impacting how the future context of the organization’s activities might unfold. Scenario planners are helpful doing this.

KEEP A COOL HEAD

Individuals are mostly very optimistic. Kahneman and Tversky made this evident in their seminal research. We are bad at dealing with unwanted futures. It is easier to condemn a war than dealing with the fact that there is a war and at least most medium-term consequences are challenging. Fortunately, structured scenario analysis is helpful. Analytical vigour can set personal feelings at rest for a while. The President of Finland, Sauli Niinistö, expressed himself along the same lines in his press release from March 3^rd, 2022 “In the midst of an acute crisis, however, it is particularly important to keep a cool head and to assess with care the impact of past and possible future changes on our security – not hesitating, but with care”. For decades the scenario community has helped decision makers to keep a cool head while making sense of a senseless situation.