This is the first part of a two-part article series where I discuss three topics:

1. Defining, measuring and developing a strategic foresight capability
2. Continuous strategic foresight: what & how
3. Integrating continuous strategic foresight into continuous strategizing, i.e., strategic conversations and management

I had the privilege of presenting these ideas to a large audience of interested executives and experts at Capful’s breakfast seminar in Helsinki on the 8th of March, 2023.

As operating environments face more and more radical uncertainties, organizations across industries and sectors are looking for ways to cope and flourish. A key instrument is building their foresight capabilities. But what exactly constitutes a foresight capability, and what should one consider when developing it? Given our experience, we at Capful can provide helpful insights to these questions.

What do you need to develop your strategic foresight capability?

The basis of any strategic foresight practices, processes or functions in organizations is a clear understanding of the organizational needs, objectives and desired outcomes for strategic foresight. Consider the use cases for foresight that are critical to your organization’s short, mid- and long-term performance. What decisions or processes require regular support by foresight?

Answering the above questions can lead to utopian dreams about where and how foresight should be utilized, which is good – being ambitious is only useful here. However, temper your plans with realistic expectations about how well your organization can utilize the results of strategic foresight currently and in the near term. Eat the foresight elephant one bite at a time.

With an understanding of what is expected from strategic foresight, it is time to build the model for it. The model comprises five major areas:

• Chosen scope and focus, themes and questions in consideration: i.e., what topics are you exploring
• The available and assigned know-how, networks, resources and responsibilities for performing strategic foresight
• Methods, tools, analytics and data sources for strategic foresight
• Way of organizing, processes and measurement of strategic foresight
• Interfaces and integration with the rest of the organization and its other processes

If you already have a working model, fixed to support one or few use-cases in your organization, you need to assess the effectiveness and ability to create value of strategic foresight. How suitable and adequate are the elements of the model in relation to the desired outcomes and the needs and objectives of the organization? How does the model work and perform? Consider also does foresight decrease uncertainty among your stakeholders. Does it trigger strategic decision-making, and does it influence and support foresight-led action?

We have developed more detailed and rigorous assessment methods for pinpointing development needs for organizations’ strategic foresight capabilities, but examinations already at this level can uncover key insights. Gaps in performance should then be used – along with exciting possibilities in model development and changing needs from the organization – to drive the creation of your desired state for strategic foresight capability. Ultimately, this view provides you with a living plan for further developing your foresight capability.

However, a capability is nothing without application. How, then to build processes for continuous foresight and integrate it with continuous strategizing? I will discuss this in the second part of the article – coming soon.