This short blog text is NOT about how we could have anticipated ”the great resignation”. Foresight could have opened the eyes to the possibility of this fundamental change in work life. But now that we have realized that employees have other ways of appreciating things than the generations mostly in charge in the organizations, we must find ways to cope with the challenges and keep talent. We propose that a proper foresight process that includes and empowers people is crucial to avoid ”the great resignation”.

Originally leaders made the voyage into the future. They perceived what the organization could be in the future, defined strategy, etc. Then they returned to here and now to inform the organization of the journey ahead. But this is a less helpful way. It is more beneficial to engage a significant part of the organization in exploring future possibilities, formulating ideas of how to be successful, and thus sharing the understanding of the future endeavour. Let us highlight some aspects of such an approach.

Millennials have already, and generation Z is starting to form the basis for organizational success. We know that their views of the role of work in life differ from those of the generations that now have the bulk of leadership positions. From a focus on work, we shifted towards balancing work and private life, and now we are moving to a situation where life comes first and then one looks at how work can contribute to life. Meaningfulness of our work is increasingly important among many employees, especially in developed economies. Work must contribute to your life. Otherwise, you allocate your time to other opportunities. Meaning emerges when you are involved in the conversation about where and how to navigate future uncharted waters. This calls on leadership to both design and engage people in the processes. Proper foresight processes create an understanding of the dynamics in the contextual environment. They highlight opportunities and risks, put strategy formulation and chosen strategies into context. In addition, they enable identification of needs to adjust strategy, and form the basis for an ongoing strategic conversation and certify that the brand is built from inside the organization. A good design enables people to participate in the conversation and enhances motivation. It does neither outsource managerial responsibilities nor minimize the role of leadership [2].

Organizational success can be attributed to the fit, and consonance, between the elements forming its business idea; i.e. the external environment, the offering and internal factors. The fit forms the dominating ideas of the organization [3]. In line with the evolution of the contextual environment, the organization should renew its set of dominating ideas. Unfortunately, the existing dominating ideas stick very hard with management, partly because management is enacting current strategy. A proper foresight process might help overcome this, and it especially empowers the organization to raise critical voices without criticizing management. The process should, if appropriately designed, be the natural forum for highlighting signals of emerging changes in the context and the potential impact on the organization. The foresight process should be the arena for ”making disagreement an asset”. To quote Richard Norman (2001) ”no other process in an organization is more fundamental in the long term than this renewal of the dominating ideas, the reappreciation of an organization’s identity and way of manifesting it, in the face of environmental change”. Foresight fuels this process. The organization will own the outcome as long as it has been empowered by leadership and good process design to participate in the strategic conversation. By feeling that one shares the dominating ideas of the organization, one is probably less likely to be part of the great resignation.

You will also perceive the meaningfulness of your work if the organization is pursuing meaningful goals. The organization’s ESG agenda is important for many employees. They want their organization to do good, otherwise, they depart. Does foresight have anything to do with this? Yes indeed.

Traditionally, the scenario praxis saw changes coming from the contextual environment, and there was little you could do than to adapt. This limited the sphere for strategic options. Fortunately, our mental repertoire is not so limited anymore. Think e.g. about WBCSD’s normative scenarios to ensure that 9 billion people can live within planetary boundaries, Adam Kahane’s work with transformative scenarios to embrace collective action, or the ideas of Market Shaping by Nenonen & Storbacka [4]. Actors can shape the future. In an organization, creative interpretation of what could be possible can reframe the thinking. By traveling into the future, one can reperceive what the organization can do and draw a new map that will change the landscape, using Norman’s subtitle (2001). Scenarios are perfect tools for drawing new maps for landscapes that do not exist yet. Adopting this view in foresight and strategy work will engage individuals who want to create a better tomorrow for the world, the organization, and themself. Empowered by a well-designed and inclusive foresight process, the ties to the organization get stronger.

Blessed are the leaders who know that they do not know. They are geared towards calling on the power of the organization and mastering the art of strategic conversation. This is even more important when the organization’s operational environment is confronted with significant changes, such as the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Leadership is well advised to foster organizational capabilities to explore future possibilities for value creation. Engaging the organization in the journey into plausible futures and back requires good process design and leadership that empowers people. Getting this right lays a good foundation for strategies that create value for all stakeholders, including society, customers and colleagues. Leaders that enable the organization to connect the future with the present they understand that leadership is an art. You are a leader as long as those you lead give you the privilege to lead them. Having a common understanding of what the future might bring at you is key. Future oriented leadership, supported by scenarios from proper foresight processes, empowers the organization to join the journey into a meaningful future. The endeavour minimizes the risk of resignation and keeps the best talent onboard.

This note is an invitation to continue the discussion. We humbly accept that there is more to learn. Happy to do that together – let’s connect.

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[1] Sincere thanks to my colleagues Risto Lätti and Nando Malmelin for constructive comments on an earlier version of this text

[2] I’m thankful to all my former colleagues at Sifo – Research International Sweden (now Kantar Sweden) for our co-creation of understanding of organizational development, manifested in the ”Management of Intangible Assets” concept.

[3] For an in-depth discussion, see e.g., Norman (1975) Management for Growth, or Norman (2001) Reframing Business – when the Map Changes the Landscape.

[4] https://www.wbcsd.org/Overview/About-us/Vision-2050-Time-to-Transform/Resources/Time-to-Transform;  Kahane (2012): Transformative Scenario Planning: Working Together to Change the Future or Kahane (2021): Facilitating Breakthrough: How to Remove Obstacles, Bridge Differences, and Move Forward Together;  Nenonen & Storbacka (2018): SMASH: Using Market Shaping to Design New Strategies for Innovation, Value Creation, and Growth.