Association activities are undergoing transformation. Funding models, forms of volunteer work, and member expectations are constantly changing. Digitalization, population aging, and many other societal phenomena also significantly impact the future of associations. How can an association survive and thrive amid these changes? Systematic future orientation, or scenario planning, offers tools that enable associations to prepare for future uncertainties and develop their operations sustainably. Scenario planning helps associations identify possible future developments and build strategies that work in different futures.
Why should associations utilize scenario planning?
Associations operate in an increasingly complex and rapidly changing environment. Members’ needs and wishes evolve, competition for people’s time and attention grows, and securing funding requires new types of justifications. Traditional planning based on a single probable future scenario does not provide adequate tools for operating in this environment.
Through scenario planning, an association can examine several different possible futures and prepare for them. Instead of only considering “what will probably happen,” scenario planning explores various possible developments and their consequences for the association’s operations. This helps the association act more flexibly and respond more quickly to changes.
Scenario planning also improves strategic decision-making in associations. When the board and executive director gain a broader understanding of environmental changes and their impacts, they can make better decisions about the association’s direction. At the same time, scenario planning helps identify areas where the association should invest regardless of which future development materializes.
Additionally, scenario planning is an effective way to engage members and stakeholders in the association’s development. When members can collectively reflect on the future and influence the association’s direction, their commitment to the association’s activities strengthens.
Key stages of scenario planning from an association’s perspective
Scenario planning for an association typically consists of the following stages:
- Mapping environmental changes
- Identifying the most important drivers of change
- Creating alternative future developments
- Assessing the impact of scenarios on the association’s operations
- Making strategic choices based on the scenarios
In the first stage, various drivers of change that may affect the association’s operations in the future are broadly mapped. These might include, for example, digitalization, changes in funding models, legislative developments, or changes in the age structure of members.
In the second stage, the most significant factors for the association are selected from these, and in the third stage, alternative future developments are created based on them. These scenarios are coherent descriptions of how the future might unfold.
In the fourth stage, what each scenario would mean for the association’s operations is assessed: what challenges and opportunities they would bring. In the final stage, strategic choices are made that take into account and prepare for the different scenarios.
How to identify drivers of change affecting the association’s operations?
Identifying drivers of change is a key stage in scenario planning. The association should examine at least the following perspectives:
Changes related to membership: How are the age structure, values, needs, and expectations of members changing? How are forms of volunteer work evolving?
Changes related to funding: How are the criteria for public funding changing? What new funding sources might emerge? How is the significance of membership fees developing?
Impacts of digitalization: How are new technologies and platforms changing the nature of association activities? What new forms of participation are emerging?
Societal changes: How are societal structures changing? How are attitudes toward association activities developing? What new regulations are coming?
In identifying drivers of change, it is worthwhile to utilize various sources: member surveys, expert interviews, research, statistics, and industry publications. Discussions with the board and active members are also valuable.
Alternative future developments and their utilization
Once the association has identified key drivers of change, alternative future developments, or scenarios, are created based on them. It is advisable to create 3-5 scenarios, and they should be sufficiently different from each other.
In scenario planning, what is essential is not predicting which future will materialize, but preparing for various possible futures. The association should consider for each scenario:
- What challenges and opportunities would the scenario bring for the association?
- How would the association’s current strategy work in this future?
- What changes would need to be made to the strategy if this future materialized?
- What early warning signs should be monitored to identify the direction of development?
Scenarios can be utilized in diverse ways in the association’s operations. They can be used to test the current strategy, develop new services and operating models, or ensure the strategy’s resilience in different futures.
Identifying essential actions in the association’s strategy
One of the most important objectives of scenario planning is to identify so-called essential actions. These are things the association should do regardless of which scenario materializes.
Essential actions might include, for example:
- Strengthening digital competence
- Diversifying the funding base
- Diversifying the age structure of membership
- Developing communications
- Increasing networking with other actors
These actions are identified by analyzing which strategic priorities are important in several or all scenarios. They form the core of the association’s strategy, which can be supplemented with scenario-specific actions as the operating environment evolves.
Implementing scenario planning results in association activities
Scenario planning produces value only if its results are put into practice. This means that strategic choices made based on the scenarios are converted into concrete actions and communicated clearly to the entire association.
Practical actions might include, for example:
- Strategy update: Based on the scenario process, the association’s strategy is updated to incorporate the identified essential actions.
- Action plan review: Ensure that the annual plan takes into account the strategic priorities.
- Communication to members: Inform members how the association is preparing for the future and why certain choices are being made.
- Monitoring indicators: Define metrics to monitor environmental changes and identify the direction of development.
- Regular evaluation: Organize an annual session to assess the relevance of the scenarios and update the strategy as needed.
Scenario planning is not a one-time project but an ongoing process. The operating environment should be monitored regularly and scenarios updated as necessary. This way, the association remains agile and able to adapt to changes.
Scenario planning is an effective way for an association to develop strategic thinking and prepare for the future. It helps the association make better decisions in a changing operating environment and ensures the continuity of operations in the long term.
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