Insigths

Capful cooperates with Kemira in scenario work

Capful and Kemira have collaborated in scenario work with the aim to envision the future of water management by 2040.

What will the future of water management look like? Will citizens become more aware and activate around clean water topics? Will conflicts erupt because of water scarcity? Will megacities and global corporations take a more prominent role – also in water provision? How does digitalization impact the clean water value chain? What about regulation?

To understand what the future of water management might hold, an influential panel of water sector experts were invited to discuss different challenges, opportunities and possible paths ahead.

The “what if?” stories presented in this report can give food for thought for strategic discussions, inspire cooperation, technology development, and encourage new and innovative ways of thinking.

The decisions we make today about water access, quality, solutions for water treatment and water reuse impact the future living conditions of communities around the world. What will actually happen? No one knows. But it’s important to consider the possibilities.

Learn more about the “Water management 2040 -future scenarios” and download the report here.

Interested in scenario work?

Contact us!


Jari Puhakka
Senior Partner
040 562 2675
jari.puhakka(at)capful.fi

Mental models, worldviews, and the challenge to perceive unpleasant futures!

Are the ”wrong trousers” here again, but now enabling the war in Ukraine?

New geopolitical, bipolar structure seems to be speeding up. We build stronger alliances with those who share the same understanding of the world. The US secretary of treasury, Janet Yellen expressed that the US would now favour “the friend-shoring of supply chains to a large number of trusted countries” that share “a set of norms and values about how to operate in the global economy”.

Although such a development makes it easier to play in your own sandbox, it creates new risks as you do not understand what is happening in another sandbox. Our value systems might hinder us from correctly assess the dynamics in e.g. Asia and how China’s position is evolving.

Senior Advisors Mikael Paltschik and Heini Kaivola shares their reflections on the latest Capful blog post.

Mental models, worldviews, and the challenge to perceive unpleasant futures!

Are the ”wrong trousers” here again, but now enabling the war in Ukraine? Analysing why the Kyoto protocol did not solve the climate crises professors Gwyn Prins and Steve Rayner claim [1] that we believed in the wrong mechanisms, we used the wrong trousers. Likewise, the world view in many Western democracies could not align itself with a scenario of a full-scale “traditional” war in Europe. Such a scenario did not exist in the public domain, and probably not in most closed chambers of leaders, not political nor business. Our western logic said it would be irrational or downright stupid. Our strong belief in institutions and mechanisms for peace, like the UN and the OSCE, said it would be impossible. The right for sovereign nations to decide their path forward said it would be wrong. Spheres of influence were a thing of the past. We were unable to put all what we had witnessed, from Grozny through Georgia and Syria to Crimea into a scenario which conflicted with what we believed was rational. And on February 24th, 2022, the “special military operation” started – Russian tanks, missiles, and troops began to shed Ukrainian blood.

Does this mean that scenario and foresight practitioners are unable to provide proper guidance to decision makers? Hopefully not. But the profession must acknowledge the fact that many times we have failed to either point to futures that do not follow the traditional rational, western liberal worldview of humans and how social systems evolve, and/or to get traction for unpleasant futures.

Perhaps this is a consequence of not thinking hard enough, or of an inability to distance oneself from the issue, thus being too close to see what might happen. Today’s scenario practitioners, or professional dreamers [2], are very much pressed on time, focusing on effectiveness of processes etc. There is not much room for such deep thinking that Pierre Wack, who developed the corporate scenario practice at Shell, was famous for. He devoted significant time to meditation and deep reflection, which led to unique understanding of how systems might evolve. Sufi mysticism and Zen Buddhism were, as we understand it, enablers of his ability to perceive the future with mental models different from scenario practitioners whose perception is bound by our western rationalism. By devoting more time to re-perceiving, one might have avoided conclusions about a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine as having no sense.

Another issue to pay attention to is the manufacturing [3] of scenarios. Mostly we see very structured manufacturing processes, processes that have an air of engineering. In those processes, choices of building blocks are made by logical reasoning bounded within prevailing value systems. Sometimes wild cards are thrown into the scenario puzzle, but the question is how much they influence the thinking if they do not fit the dominant mental models. Just think about the Talebian Black Swans. When using the end products, the scenarios, we forget about all the choices we made in the manufacturing process. Everything we did not pay sufficient attention to, things that did not fit the dominant logic, such as a new war in Europe.

Creativity comes into play first when making the scenarios come to life as stories of plausible futures, but it is far too late and does not change the fact that in most cases, the underlying scenarios are only different extensions of the present in new packages. And it is not because we, as Wack instructed us, created one surprise-free scenario to ensure managerial attention. The challenge is very much like the one the late Clayton Christensen described when addressing Excel and MBA students as the biggest obstacles for innovation. We need to increase our abilities to imagine, to think the un-thinkable.

There seems to be an increasing risk that we continue to use wrong trousers. The war in Ukraine seems to speed up a new geopolitical, bipolar structure. Our value systems might hinder us from correctly assess the dynamics in e.g.  Asia and how China’s position is evolving. We build stronger alliances with those who share the same understanding of the world. The US secretary of treasury, Janet Yellen expressed that the US would now favour “the friend-shoring of supply chains to a large number of trusted countries” that share “a set of norms and values about how to operate in the global economy”. Although such a development makes it easier to play in your own sandbox, it creates new risks as you do not understand what is happening in another sandbox.

Professional dreamers must learn their lesson. Scenario planners must adopt more lenses to their work, letting conflicting worldviews and value systems create a constructive dynamic platform for perceiving and re-perceiving. Different trousers must come into play. And decision makers, the clients of the scenarios, must be kept onboard the learning journey into futures.


[1] The Wrong Trousers: Radically Rethinking Climate Policy Gwyn Prins & Steve Rayner A Joint Discussion Paper of the James Martin Institute for Science and Civilization, University of Oxford and the MacKinder Centre for the Study of Long-Wave Events, London School of Economics – 2007

[2] See e.g. Professional dreamers: The past in the future of scenario planning. Cynthia Selin, Arizona State University in Sharpe & van der Heijden. (2007) Scenarios for Success: Turning Insights into Action.

[3] The term manufacturing is picked up from a slide from the Oxford Scenario Programme

Making sense of the senseless – understanding implications of the war in Ukraine

This cannot happen! This war is insane! What on earth are they trying to achieve? Outcries like these have been common since end of February. But unfortunately, Russia’s war against Ukraine is a fact. Another fact is that all the signs were there, including US intelligence predictions of the date when the invasion would start. But we could not interpret things correctly, mostly because the scenario of a war in Europe was so awkward. A tragedy is now unfolding before our eyes. But as decision makers, responsible for our organizations, we must make sense of the situation, cope with plausible tomorrows, and make decisions today.

 

SEEING PAST THE BIASES IS CRUCIAL IN SENSEMAKING

 

In real-time we see what is happening. Media, both traditional and social, report of different aspects. One challenge we have is that there are probably very few “objective” reports, all are looking at the situation through lenses, some intentionally stressing some aspects, some conveying wishful thinking, some pure propaganda etc. To understand why who is saying what is not an easy task.  And at the same time our perceptions and interpretations are very tweaked by our personal set of values.

 

DO YOU HAVE THE TOOLS TO MAKE SENSE OF THE SITUATION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS?

 

The war in Ukraine was not more than days old when the first companies announced that they will withdraw from Russia. This was not based only on the sanctions imposed, but also on other considerations, including moral and ethical. Other decision might be less dramatic, but the situation is new, the playing field has tilted. Few organizations have scenarios and contingency plans for the situation with a war in Europe. These would be helpful to have, when making decisions in a new, and partly unknown situation. It is of utmost importance to start working on such plans now. Doing so, one must consider several plausible ways the war might unfold. Fortunately, there are tools and practices to support the planning process.

Lot of thinking power and energy is devoted to the immediate and acute challenges. The magnitude of the refugee tragedy is enormous. The anticipated recovery from the pandemic will be postponed.  The global financial system faces challenges etc.  At the same time, we already see that the war Russia has started has impacted other processes. Besides EU revamping unity and acceleration of discussions of NATO membership in Finland and Sweden, e.g. energy transition is not only a climate issue anymore, but also a security issue. And global sourcing and logistics are looked at in new ways. Recycling of especially rare earth metals will be looked at more intensively. A lot of issues emerge. Each organization face uncertainties that have not been on the radar screen before the war. It is beneficial to take a fresh look at the set of uncertainties impacting how the future context of the organization’s activities might unfold. Scenario planners are helpful doing this.

 

KEEP A COOL HEAD

 

Individuals are mostly very optimistic. Kahneman and Tversky made this evident in their seminal research. We are bad at dealing with unwanted futures. It is easier to condemn a war than dealing with the fact that there is a war and at least most medium-term consequences are challenging. Fortunately, structured scenario analysis is helpful. Analytical vigour can set personal feelings at rest for a while. The President of Finland, Sauli Niinistö, expressed himself along the same lines in his press release from March 3rd, 2022 “In the midst of an acute crisis, however, it is particularly important to keep a cool head and to assess with care the impact of past and possible future changes on our security – not hesitating, but with care”. For decades the scenario community has helped decision makers to keep a cool head while making sense of a senseless situation.

Brand owner! Why should you absolutely use foresight to help build your brand image?

Your task as a brand builder is to ensure you differentiate from competitors and alternatives and remain meaningful not only to your customers, but all your key stakeholders. In other words, you must continually develop your brand’s positioning, preferably by looking forward than backward. In addition, in their search for unique positions, means to provide added value and untapped markets, brands seek a forerunner status.    

Strategic foresight about the business environment is a useful tool not only for developing growth strategies, but for building the brand’s thought leadership position.

Why is that?

Leading brands not only envision their organization’s future state but engage their stakeholders in envisioning the future(s) of their shared business environment. By doing this, brands show leadership, prove their claims of being forerunners and shape their markets. Foresight and scenario thinking provide the means for envisioning the shared future(s). 

What’s in it for me, you might ask.

With foresight, we can imagine one or several scenarios of the future of your business environment. In the process we identify the most relevant future-oriented communication themes that resonate with your audiences and use those as building blocks in the scenario work.  The point is to have a foresightful view of the key questions you share with your stakeholders and invite them to co-operate in building a future where you and your stakeholders flourish. Here, foresight provides you with compelling content for your brand building – knowledge and inspiration about the possibilities of the future that is crucial both to you and your stakeholder. Better yet, scenarios of the future also provide a communication framework where you can illustrate the value-add of your brand’s innovations and offering in your shared context.

Forerunners like Shell, Wärtsilä and Bosch and many others have utilized foresight as means of brand building with great success. This is exactly what we did with Kemira when we imagined together the Future of Water, and you can read more about the case and its results here.

How do you build your brand and would you like to hear more about how you could benefit from strategic foresight as a brand builder?

Let me know and let’s talk!

Tomi Heikkinen kuva

Tomi Heikkinen
Director
+358 40 709 9530
tomi.heikkinen@capful.fi

How do we ensure a just, prosperous, and resilient Nigeria when it turns 100 in 2060?

This question underpins the Which Way Nigeria – Citizen Scenarios to 2060 (CS60) initiative with the aim of first creating scenarios for the country up to 2060 and then offering a roadmap towards achieving Nigerians’ desired path to the future. CS60 has retained Capful to facilitate the participatory scenario process, which engages civil society in exploring and debating the future of Africa’s powerhouse. 

“Which Way Nigeria – Citizen Scenarios to 2060 provides citizens the very rare opportunity to create the future that they want, not what officials and barons dictate. The initiative is also geared to spark the entire country to be the change and live the change to create the Nigeria that is a global player, not the hobbling giant of Africa.”

– Victoria Ibezim-Ohaeri, Olamide Udoma-Ejorh, Bell Ihua, Chukwumerije Okereke, Odeh Friday, Oluseun Onigbinde, Aloysius Bongwa, Richard Dion
Citizen scenarios 2060: A necessary and hard look into the future

The citizen scenarios stem from the existential questions that Nigeria and its citizens have to ask. Topics such as energy transition, agriculture, urban and regional development, education, and health are pivotal to Africa’s largest economy. With Nigerian civil society organizations (CSOs) taking the lead, CS60 brings together leading local and international experts, whilst Capful brings its scenario expertise to the table. Capful’s Scenario Builder® helps create logical, plausible, and differentiated scenarios for Nigeria until 2060. The algorithm-based tool produces a set of initial scenarios that are illustrated in an interactive map. The map helps select logical and thought-provoking alternatives for further examination and brings out novel viewpoints that inspire futures thinking among participants involved in the scenario process.

Last week, CS60 completed its third workshop, with participants exploring the key drivers, uncertainties, and potential outcomes relating to Nigeria’s future and describing the country’s alternative futures. In addition to end-state descriptions, we will define storylines, cause-and-effect relationships, and quantifications of the scenarios to pave the way for further analysis on the implications of the scenarios for Nigeria.

After the scenario phase, CS60 moves on to outline a roadmap towards achieving the desired future Nigeria through a combination of leadership, policy reform, and investments. The roadmap, created by CSOs, will include intended milestones tied to the timeline and it will serve as the basis for actions needed to achieve a just, prosperous and resilient Nigeria that its citizens deserve.

“With its abundant resources and its population likely to hit 400 million by 2050, Nigeria holds immense future potential. Helping facilitate the scenario process that engages Nigeria’s civil society has been both demanding and meaningful.”

– Arto Kaunonen, Capful’s Founder and Senior Partner

Interested?

Contact us


Arto Kaunonen
Founding Partner
050 356 0717        
arto.kaunonen(at)capful.fi

Post ceteris paribus

In a not too distant past, we used to model and calculate how things would develop with a ceteris paribus assumption of all other aspects of the issue than those we analysed. There was, and is, a rationale for “all else being equal”. Complexity is reduced. Our computational and cognitive capabilities are at ease. And we can produce an answer, which, according to the late management thinker Peter Drucker, too often is more important than asking the right questions.

The times we are living see change happening at an accelerating pace. The complexity of issues at hand is increasing, as we also appreciate the interconnectedness between micro, meso and macro level processes all around the globe. All in all, uncertainty is genuine. It cannot be reduced to risk and probabilities. The uncertainty we are confronted with in decision making does not follow the probability distributions underlying our traditional decision support models. This context indicates that we must accept living in a post ceteris paribus world.

Facing the complexity challenges, decision makers should not go back to tossing the coin. Fortunately, there are increasing possibilities to get support to deal with complexity. Advances in the computer technologies, not even to mention the emergence of supercomputers, allow us to simulate myriads of potential futures that the decision maker might experience coming at him or her. Artificial intelligence, making use of increased computational power, contributes with further support, especially in cases where elements of pattern recognition, in the broadest meaning, comes into play. The theoretical frontiers and their applications in domains like complexity, systems, chaos etc. are also advancing rapidly.  And virtual reality can support decision makers to experience futures etc. So, we do not need to include ceteris paribus conditions to be able to deal with complexity.

But there is one crucial constraint, our cognitive processing. Most of us are unfortunately not unconstrained in our capacity to deal with loads of information and tons of options to go forward. First, we are very selective in paying attention to information, and biased in how we allow our brains to process the information. Research shows that we tend to go with what is familiar, and, perhaps more worrying, we tend to put a higher probability to something that is in some way familiar to us to happen, than what is unfamiliar. One consequence is that we will face more surprises, the future did not play out as expected. But that expectation did probably not count for the unfamiliar part of the complex world coming at us.

So, tools are available, but all of us are not well prepared to benefit from them in dealing with the complexity of futures. Scenario planning offers one way to cope with the challenge. Pierre Wack, whose work at Shell, established scenario practice as a tool for strategic planners and decision makers to cope with genuine uncertainty in a world of accelerating change and increasing complexity. The manufacturing of logical consistent, analytical and emotionally sticking descriptions of plausible futures enables decision makers to make journeys into futures, futures which are outcomes of very complex dynamics but depicted in an understandable way. This enables cognitive processes to put output from decision support into different, and new perhaps previously unfamiliar, contexts and use it successfully.

Let us make complexity a friend, and enjoy living in a post ceteris paribus time.

Writer:


Mikael Paltschik
Senior Advisor
050 344 6953
mikael.paltschik(at)capful.fi

Scenario services to help understand the future amid coronavirus uncertainty


Capful offers scenario services to help make sense of the future amid coronavirus uncertainty.

The corona pandemic is without precedent in the modern era. Several billion people are under lockdown, and large parts of the economy have frozen. There is no old playbook to copy in this crisis. For organisations struggling to navigate the crisis and wondering what world will emerge from the shock, Capful has put together four alternative scenario packages that focus on different phases and aspects of the crisis. Our proprietary software tool, the Scenario Builder™, makes our scenario process highly effective and efficient. The four packages we offer are outlined below. Please have a look and contact us to find out more.

CRISIS SCENARIOS

  • Alternative scenarios for the epidemic’s progression
  • Duration and phases: case growth and other aspects
  • Depth and severity of the twin crisis: health and economy
  • Impact of scenarios on different sectors, response plans
  • Organisation-specific impact analyses, need for change
  • Time span: 4-18 months

OUT OF CRISIS SCENARIOS

  • Alternative scenarios for how the complex pandemic-induced crisis will unfold
  • When and how will we emerge from the crisis?
  • New and old normal in the short term
  • Implications on strategy, testing of strategies against scenarios
  • Time span: 2-5 years

FROM CRISIS SCENARIOS TO GROWTH

  • External shock as a source of innovation
  • Scenarios as platform for new growth ideas and business opportunities
  • Concretising growth ideas and testing against selected criteria
  • Selected growth ideas in existing, adjacent and new markets
  • Time span: 5-15 years
  • External shock as a source of innovation
  • Scenarios as platform for new growth ideas and business opportunities
  • Concretising growth ideas and testing against selected criteria
  • Selected growth ideas in existing, adjacent and new markets
  • Time span: 5-15 years

AFTER CRISIS SCENARIOS

  • Big picture after the pandemic
  • From crisis to creative destruction, compounding effects of the pandemic
  • Permanent effects or new normal in the long run
  • Reversible effects, factors returning to old normal
  • New vision and strategy emerging after the crisis
  • Time span: 10-20 years

Contact us, we are glad to tell more about the scenarios.

Gasgrid Finland updates its strategy in cooperation with Capful


Gasgrid Finland, a Finnish state-owned gas transmission system operator has prepared four scenarios concerning the future of gases to base its strategy work on. Scenario work seeks an in-depth understanding of changes in the operating environment that are to be utilized later in the strategy phase. In the scenario phase, Capful helped Gasgrid Finland to look far into the future and to see alternative developments in the industry, key forces for change in the operating environment and the associated uncertainty.

The preparation of the scenarios to form the basis of Gasgrid’s strategy started in February 2020. The scenario work has been a modern, open journey of exploration into possible visions of the future.

In the course of the scenario work, the understanding that the Finnish gas sector has possibilities to have an impact on its future has strengthened, however it requires work. If we as a sector believe in our possibilities to create significant benefit for the society as it strives to become carbon-neutral, we must work in even stronger collaboration and relay this message – both in words and in actions,” summarizes Anni Sarvaranta, who leads strategy work at Gasgrid Finland.

The scenarios are presented in more detail on Gasgrid’s website at Gases as Part of the Energy System of the Future.

Further information:

Anni Sarvaranta, Senior Vice President, Strategy and Market Development, tel. +358 50 348 2071, anni.sarvaranta[at]gasgrid.fi.

Gasgrid Finland Oy is a Finnish state-owned gas transmission system operator with system responsibility. Gasgrid Finland ensures safe, cost-efficient and reliable gas transmission for the customers and society.

The preparation of the scenarios to form the basis of Gasgrid’s strategy started in February 2020. The scenario work has been a modern, open journey of exploration into possible visions of the future.

Scenarios, strategic options and scent of roses

“The 2020 election doomsday scenarios are endless: Dozens of lawsuits challenging state results.”

“Wildlife expert says black bears hunting humans is an extreme scenario.”

“Worst-case global heating scenarios may need to be revised upwards in light of a better understanding of the role of clouds, scientists have said.”

US banks have again been evaluated against adverse scenarios in annual stress tests, and the Finnish Air Force has trained key personnel in tactically challenging scenarios. Different transmission scenarios have been explored during the coronavirus pandemic, and recently published scenarios have already been updated to reflect the pandemic’s impact. Scenarios are frequently featured in the news – in a wide variety of contexts – and at first glance, they seem synonymous with alternatives. In strategic conversation, scenarios often refer to an organisation’s strategic options but also to different types of forecasts, quantitative models, economic modelling or sensitivity analyses. What do we mean when we talk about scenarios – and why does it matter?

Scenarios and strategic options – different tools for different purposes

What do scenarios and strategic options have in common? Both deal with alternatives. So, does it matter if strategic options are called scenarios? I think it does. Scenarios relate to alternative developments in the external environment of an organisation, whilst strategic options address the organisation’s own development pathways.

Shell, a pioneer of scenario work, has been developing scenarios since the 1970s and defines them as “plausible and challenging descriptions of the future landscape”. It is in this future landscape – illuminated by scenarios – that companies and other organisations must navigate and steer their operations, with alternative routes and directions available to decision makers – in the form of strategic options.

Strategic options are linked to companies’ own choices and opportunities, for example when pursuing growth. What are the dimensions of market growth and what are the company’s options and enablers regarding growth? A creative and systematic process helps build strategic growth options, discuss them in a structured manner and assess them systematically from different angles to draw up a well-founded growth strategy for the company.

Strategic options are a useful but underexploited tool. Based on research by Capful and others, a large number of companies believe that strategic options should be used as part of strategy work and decision making. In practice, however, very few companies systematically use them when developing strategies – due to firmly entrenched decision-making processes, avoidance of conflict or lack of time, among other things.

In the midst of the coronavirus crisis, it’s useful to look at the large number of uncertainties in the external environment and make scenarios for what might lie ahead; anticipate how and when we’ll get out of the pandemic and what the post-crisis world will look like. It also makes sense to take full advantage of strategic options – identify, describe and evaluate them against different criteria and scenarios – to make informed choices. But in the context of strategy making, it’s also advisable to keep in mind that scenarios and strategic options are not the same: Scenario-based strategy work is different from strategy work based on strategic options. If they look and smell like strategic options, why call them scenarios when they in fact are strategic options.

Scenarios or forecasts – what’s the difference? 

From the outset, pioneers of scenario work – like Herman Kahn, Pierre Wack, Shell, SRI International and GBN – opted not to assign any probabilities to scenarios: all scenarios are treated equally possible. This may have been partly in response to companies being overly dependent on quantitative model-based projections in their strategic planning. Since the early 1970s, forecasting errors had become more frequent; they were at times dramatic and in some cases disturbingly large. What were the conclusions then, and what are the implications for scenario practice today?

  1. Scenarios should be used to identify plausible futures – not to predict probable futures.
  2. All scenarios presented should be taken as equally possible – for managers to thoroughly analyse the implications of each scenario and to compose backup plans for each scenario.
  3. Scenario work should reveal several possible futures – not to pinpoint the most credible future or the most likely one that is consistent with some underlying assumptions.

To spot genuine uncertainties and discontinuities or to anticipate radical structural changes and dramatic shocks in the external environment, we need a method that allows us to think the unthinkable and imagine the unimaginable – free from probabilities. It is not possible to foresee significant step changes using forecasts that are based on today’s and yesterday’s knowledge, frameworks, cause-effect relationships, continuities and trends.

Why is it important to emphasise the difference between scenarios and forecasts? Our thoughts and perceptions are – often unconsciously – controlled and guided by the desire to predict the future and the belief of past events repeating themselves. Scenarios are a tool, not only for dealing with uncertainty, but also for challenging decision-makers’ existing worldviews and mental models. To make this possible, we should avoid falling into the probability trap and steer clear of dominant thinking in scenario work.

The road from scenario thinking to the world of forecasting is paved with probabilities: when one starts talking about the likelihood of future developments, one shifts from scenarios to forecasts. Scenarios help you ask the right questions, whereas forecasts are used to find the right answers. Many strategic missteps stem from trying to find the right answers (problem solving), even though the right questions have not yet been asked (problem framing).

Forecasts and scenarios serve different purposes, and it’s prudent to keep these concepts and associated methods and practices separate in the strategy toolkit. A forecast is intrinsically uncertain, but this does not make it a scenario. If it looks and smells like a forecast, it’s a good idea to call it a forecast.

What are scenarios in strategy work – and what are they not?

The coronavirus crisis has revved up scenario projects. There’s an exceptionally high level of uncertainty regarding the future, and scenarios make it possible to address the uncertainty in a meaningful way. But in the thick of the action, it’s worth keeping the concepts of scenarios, strategic options and forecasts separate. Below is a brief summary of what scenarios are and what they are not in strategy work.

The economic, environmental, technological and other forces affecting organisations are increasingly complex and intertwined, and unexpected events like the Covid-19 pandemic can radically increase volatility in the external environment. But complexity and uncertainty need not prevent us from preparing for the future. Scenario-based strategic planning helps decisionmakers develop flexible strategies for an uncertain future, whilst new tools like Capful’s Scenario BuilderTM help make the process agile and effective.

When embarking on a scenario-based strategy project, it’s a good idea to make the rules of the game clear to all participants. The purpose of the process is not to prop up the ‘official’ future, determine a probable or preferable future, or seek support for existing management views. Quite the opposite, there’s now an opportunity to delve into issues and topics that call into question the official worldview or are otherwise ‘forbidden’ or ‘impossible’. To make the most of the project, it’s also necessary to clarify the concepts and help project participants distinguish the charming scent of scenarios from the equally wonderful smells of strategic options and forecasts.

Quotes from: CNNCBCThe Guardian


Arto Kaunonen
Founder, Senior Partner
+358 50 356 0717
arto.kaunonen(at)capful.fi